Apple Foldable

Just realized that the iPhone Air design of putting all the hardware (save battery and screen) in a single block module suggests that an iPhone foldable will probably have a chin (or forehead?) so that, when open, it won't be a rectangle but, instead, have a block (a reverse notch) along the bottom of one half of the unfolded screen.  This would allow it to be incredibly thin when folded (because the leaves would just be screen - maybe even no battery in the leaf - only in the block?).  And still very thin when folded.

Or maybe the block module will be lengthwise in the spine?

Apple and in-house chips for MacOS

Lots of commentary today around Bloomberg's story regarding a switch by Apple to in-house chips (from Intel) for the Mac.

Perfectly consistent with Apple's stated goals (control the whole stack) and addresses some issues (waiting for Intel, instruction sets sometimes not even needed, etc.).

Of course, transitioning won't be trivial but I wonder if a solution is viable given Apple's unusual business model and execution.  Simply said, why couldn't Apple just include BOTH an Intel chip and an in-house chip?  The costs of a processor seem to be in the $25-40 range.  Given Mac pricing, it seems doable to just build in both and use the appropriate processor as necessary.  In fact, notwithstanding Apple's adherence to strong margins, they could even swallow some (or all) of this and treat the extra cost burden as sort of a down payment on the future to derisk the transition for a couple years.

I know this is the exact opposite of Apple's usual course of taking the hard decision and stepping firmly into the future (or at least Apple's vision of the future) but, if viewed as a choice between emulation software and simply including the hardware, maybe this is more user friendly (and thus entirely consistent with Apple's approach)?

iPhone SE backorder

I ordered an iPhone SE on May 26. Apple estimated it would take about 2-3 weeks for delivery (that is around June 14).

I figured that, as has been typical for Apple, 2-3 weeks was a conservative estimate and the phone would arrive well before that. Instead, the delivery window hasn't shifted at all.  In fact the estimate for the earliest delivery date is now 3 weeks from the order date and the outside date has shifted to 4 weeks...

A few questions:

1) were sales completely underestimated? It seems clear that original estimates were low (given that the phones immediately went on backorder upon release).  But now it seems that estimates continue to remain wrong?
2) why are they still backordered? Is it supply and not demand?  Has demand increased and so made even revised sales expectations too low? Or is supply somehow constrained as Apple gears up for iPhone 7 (if there even will be a major change to an iPhone 7).
3) why were sales so underestimated in the beginning and, perhaps, now?
4) will up-to-date iPhones henceforth come in 3 sizes (4, 4.7, and 5.5 inches)?
5) will Apple change the launch cycles for iPhones and iPads to Spring and Fall, respectively?  I think this would better match gift cycles (it is cumbersome to gift an iPhone because of carrier subscriptions and so moving away from holiday makes sense).

All in all, the pessimism around Apple seems odd if even a phone that is cosmetically identical to the 4 year old iPhone 5 can sell out for weeks (and perhaps months).

NFC, iPhone, Apple Watch (iWatch or whatever it will be called)

Daring Fireball, as always, had a very thoughtful post (couched as a joke) on how NFC could be incorporated and be made more useful on a phone than it has been to date.

I don't know really know a ton about NFC but believe that the paypass, expresspay, etc. systems all use an NFC chip on the payment tag, card, etc.

John Gruber suggests that both the phone and wearable could have an NFC chip to allow this.  I would not mind a contactless payment device that was already on my wrist instead of in my pocket.

My question: is it possible to create a configurable NFC chip that allows it to take on the identity of an NFC chip that works with paypass or expresspay?  So I'm thinking that an american express customer confirms some credentials that allow the phone's chip to work with the relevant system.  As an alternative to configurable, I guess the chip could be static and the payment network is instructed to respect the chip and associate it with an account.  I think this is how google wallet works.

My issues:
- would one be able to link more than one account?  If so, how would one easily select which account to use?  Right now, selection is inherent in the tap as I choose which card or dongle to tap to the machine.  If a phone has credentials for more than one network, it seems that the ease of tap gets offset with the burden of selection.  What I want is what I have now: I have a paypass chip GLUED to my phone so I tap my phone to the reader with no need to enter anything on my phone (no app, no interaction, etc.).  This is WAY better than having to enter anything.  I might tolerate a fingerprint confirm.
- do the systems want to encourage or discourage others to create chips?  I can't decide.  On the side of encourage, it would increase use of the systems, make merchants more likely to use them, etc. (typical network effects).  On the side of discourage, it lowers barriers to entry (if it can be done on an iPhone, over time it can be done on ANY phone, or watch or whatever) and creates security risks (there is some authentication process where a phone is authorized to the system rather than receiving a card that is pre-authorized).

AppleTV and gaming

I had expected games to be announced for AppleTV by now (so much so that I foolishly deferred buying an AppleTV for our new television).  I had originally assumed that the announcement would be dependent upon a large enough installed base of AppleTVs to resolve the usual chicken/egg problem for game devices (no games means no one buys the console; no console owners means no one develops games).

However, I think that, beyond installed base (seems like it is about 20m units so far, but perhaps some of these are older models? In any event, at 7m units per year, it will reach a respectable number quickly), perhaps the delay is because of the poor reception for the MFi controllers.  And, until Apple can figure out if it wants to sell its own controllers or try to simply set standards, it is holding off on gaming?

A good controller is hard to design but worth getting right.  And a good controller at a reasonable price (especially as it will be compared to the relative cost vs. the AppleTV itself) is even harder.  If we don't see games announced when the installed base of third generation AppleTVs (running at least an A5) is 40m, I will be more convinced that it is a lack of good controllers at a good price that is deferring games.

Separately, the fact that Apple has stuck to A5s for the AppleTV is suggestive of trying to create a meaningful base.  At the same time, the 64bit A7 likely makes more sense for quality gaming and future proofing so, if Apple wants the installed base to be 64 bit, we may have a long wait for games on AppleTV.  I may go buy that AppleTV now that I think about it...

bully

When does Apple start to be perceived as a bully?  Perhaps it has already happened and I am just late.

Targeted broadcast television advertising

Given the high value of digital advertising, much of which is based upon the better targeting, why haven't cable providers and broadcasters joined forces to deliver targeted ads?  I think this should be relatively straightforward (massive because of the numbers but straightforward nevertheless): with broadcasters' permission, cable providers would replace the ads with those better targeted to the specific household.  Delivery should be relatively simple.  Ads could be pre-loaded during low demand periods to avoid the need to stream ads in realtime (DVR equipped cable boxes may be able to do this without hardware modifications).

I believe advertisers would object if they perceive their ratecards as losing value (we paid for x households, instead we got y).  So we would have a combination of broadcast program and narrowcast ads. Which, in fact, is how adserving works generally anyway.  And could very well be why Google is getting in the broadband business.

iOS 7 and drowning in contacts

Dear Apple,

If just this one wish for iOS 7 is granted, I'll be pretty happy:

Please let me know which database/source my contact information is drawn from WITHOUT needing to turn off each database individually.  I just want to clean up my multiple instances of John Doe so I consolidate on fewer databases.  Some sort of label, color, or tag would be fine.  Something smarter than I can think of would be even better.  I am drowning in contacts.

Thanks.

a period of inefficient utilization of computers

I wonder if the past decade will be seen, oddly enough, as a trough of efficiency and productivity.  I wonder this because we are currently hampered by both our inputs (keyboards are unwieldy, voice is inaccurate, etc.) and outputs (screens are still small and only recently have ultra-high resolutions).  Until I can replicate the massive amount of readily visible and accessible information as I have in an unfolded road map, I think there may be a lot of room for productivity gains from computers.

Libratone Zipp

This is crazy.  It delivers music over wi-fi using a dedicated network?  Forget connecting to Pandora, etc., even the default music player on an iPhone could be handicapped if it is relying on iTunes in the cloud.  And one could not use any internet-reliant apps (including safari) while playing music.  Unless you feel like using your cellular data connection.

Shame on the NYT (where I first heard about this) for not calling out the severe shortcomings of this device.

iPad Mini Pricing

A fun data point to help think about the reasonableness of the iPad Mini's pricing.  The original iPod Mini (4GB, 1.67 inch grayscale 138x110 screen, 8 hour battery life, 3.6 oz) was sold through February 2005 for $249(!).  And people bought it like crazy.  It was expensive but people found a way to justify its purchase.  I suspect plenty of people will find a way to justify the purchase of the iPad Mini.

iPad Mini

A few not-so-special thoughts on the iPad Mini that put in writing what I would say if someone were to ask whether to buy it:

1) It is really an iPad 2.  Same processor (noting, as anticipated, that the 32nm process allows Apple to stick to the 10 hour battery life specification that they have chosen to be a fundamental iPad feature), same memory, same resolution (but not PPI), etc.  And an iPad 2 is only $70 more.  So if one doesn't own an iPad and is price sensitive, he should just buy a 2 (noting that it may not get supported up to iOS 7 as iPad2 was not given Siri).
2) It's a bit pricey compared to Androids (both branded and unbranded) and iPad 2.
3) But, if one already has an iPad and is looking to add another, the Mini starts getting more attractive vs. a 2 (Siri, better camera).  Especially if "another" means an "auxiliary" iPad - one that is picked up because the other is being used or that is taken on the road, etc.  The distinguishing physical features (weight, size) tied to the same overall experience (iOS 6 with no compromises) might make this the device of choice for out-of-the-house use.
4) This is especially the case for those with a first-generation iPad and a second (iPad 2 or New iPad).  For those who can't quite justify buying a third full-size iPad when the iPad 2 works just fine, the slightly lower price with changed physical attributes could be enough to make this worth buying.
5) I imagine that the $329 price is strong evidence that Google and Amazon sell their tablets at cost based on Apple's 30-40% profit margin target.  This isn't really relevant to a purchase decision other than to suggest that the lower price of the Nexus and Fire shouldn't be seen as a sign of significantly worse quality.  This is #2 stated otherwise and might push a buyer towards one of those two.
6) I suspect that there will be some interesting education pricing (maybe $300) but that the iPod Touch made the $299 price almost impossible to use. So look for reduced prices for the Touch and Mini in 6-9 months.  Meaning that there's no rush to buy a Mini here - especially with an A5 that will be two generations behind an assumed A7 in 12 months or less.
7) I have thought that the product introduction cycle for iPad and iPhone was backwards - although both are suitable gifts, because of the carrier hassles, iPad makes a better gift.  And thus Apple would be better served with fall introductions than spring.  Perhaps the iPad 4th gen introduction is a sign that iPads will now get updated in the fall and phones will transition to the spring.  Now is exactly the right time to make this switch.  The next phone will likely retain the 5's design and so development time is slightly easier (one less major change to manage).  Fall 2013 iPad has a natural design direction (thinner and lighter as the current is heavier and thicker than the 2) and so has a good selling proposition.  Six month upgrade cycles are so fast as to upset purchasers (note those who have asked to return their third-gens because the fourth came out) and perpetually delay purchases.  I note this in the context of an iPad Mini purchase because one should not hold out for an iPad fifth gen in spring 2013 if the choice is between Mini now or fifth gen later.

My takeaway from my advice to myself:
- We have a first-gen that is getting laggy;
- We take the iPad with us all the time and it can be a little burdensome (it has a heavy case);
- We haven't been spoiled with the retina iPad's display (only have an iPad 2 and the first-gen);
- We won't buy a new full-size iPad until it gets thinner and lighter; and
- $329 is not great but still better than $399 for another 2.

So we will buy one for Christmas and strip down the old iPad so it runs a little faster as a pure web + iTunes machine.  Like our old iPhone 3Gs.

A last thought: the iPad 2 may have been retained to do something similar with the MacBooks: create a retina line and a non-retina line as Apple transitions to all-Retina over time.  The continued presence of the 2 without highlighting it as the "base" iPad is weird.

USB-Lightning Cables

The apparently imminent launch of the iPad Mini (or whatever it will be called) could help to explain why USB-Lightning cables continue to be in short supply.  Given the choice between selling them in retail and as a constraint on sales of a new iPad form factor, I guess it makes sense to make sure they are allocated first to the iPad Mini (although margins must approach 100% on the cable, cash margin of the iPad Mini sale is still higher at about $60-75).  There were plenty of cables available before the launch of iPhone 5 (I got mine in two days) and now it's on backorder.  That doesn't usually happen with Apple's supply chain.

Amazon Phone and Instant Video

The longer Amazon goes without releasing an instant video app for iPhone, the more likely it seems that an Amazon phone is imminent.  If it were far away, it wouldn't make sense to hold off issuing.  And there is no technical reason not to release (as there is an app for the iPad).  So, my only explanation (I'm sure there are others) for no iPhone version is that Amazon wants to have as complete a differentiated feature list as possible.

I think (I could check but am too lazy) that Kindle books also followed the same pattern (Amazon proprietary device first, app version later).

UPDATE: I was clearly wrong.

HP problem

As a sharp illustration of the problems with HP, I discovered that Amazon does not carry any photosmart printers.  There are plenty for sale through third-parties on the site but none that are eligible for amazon prime.  That is disturbing and odd.

"We got a great deal on sandpaper"

Some have suggested that a 7.85" iPad is difficult to introduce because of Jobs's memorable quip regarding sandpaper and smaller tablets.  I don't think this would really stop Apple from releasing a 7.85" version if they think the market will embrace it.  But, as a nice break from the Jobs era and as a memorable line, they could simply start off the intro by saying "we got a great deal on some sandpaper...".  I think including a square in every box would be going a little too far but would be awesome.

More seriously, I had been wondering why Apple didn't promote the improved specs of the iPad 2 with the 32nm process.  It occurs to me that, by keeping the improved battery life as a silent feature, they would be able to use the new chip in an iPad mini (which will likely have a disproportionately smaller battery than iPad) and so maintain their 10 hour use standard for iPad easily.  If they had promoted the 12+ hours life, it would make the battery life of the mini seem like a letdown (and, of course, would have highlighted the lower life of the iPad 3rd gen).

touch and hover

Hover was a great innovation on the computer - to provide contextual information with a short lag (to avoid mental overload or distraction) nicely matches normal human interaction of hesitation indicating uncertainty (and thus suggesting more information is needed).  Adding hover to touch would be a great innovation for touch screens and make screens more information rich without requiring more real estate.  I'm not sure if it would work best as a literal hover (where a fingertip that is close but not touching is registered as a hover) or  something more prosaic (a three finger touch or similar).  But hover really is missing from iOS and would be valuable. And easier to use than iPhoto's help button (which has the information overload problem).  I wonder how Office will handle this.

crazy iPad stuff

As the iPad already seems to do nearly everything most users need of it, it's hard to think of obvious features to add.  But there are plenty of wacky ones that would be great:
1. e-ink smart cover.  There seemed to be a time when some cared about the use of the iPad as an ebook and its use in sunlight.  Given the exorbitant price for covers (leather smartcover - $70!), couldn't it make sense to have an e-ink cover?  If amazon can sell a kindle for $79, it seems credible that a cover can come in at a reasonable price as a lot of the work would be handled by the iPad itself.  And, as a way to present infrequently updated information, it could even handle some of the widget issues.
2. video-in.  iPad has a great screen that can pull in data from lots of sources.  But all of those sources need to be on-board or, at best, stream from something else using a wifi network.  I'd like to see iPad to iPad streaming so a single video can be played simultaneously on two screens using bluetooth or some sort of parallel ad hoc wifi.  Or, even better, add the ability to allow hardware connections to use the iPad as an auxiliary screen - parents would love this in the car.
3. waterproof.  As tough as the iPad is, we still take great care to keep it from getting wet.  Reading in the bath, using in the kitchen, taking to the beach - all of these work much better if the enclosure is water resistant (I'm assuming water resistance covers sand as well).

kindle killer

How's this for a Kindle Fire Killer?  A fully iPad/iOS compatible tablet computer, 9.7" screen, 16GB, 10 hours battery-life (100+ hour standby).  $300.  Name brand manufacturer (Apple, actually).

AppleTV

If I understand this right, AppleTV now streams/redownloads video as well as audio previously purchased from iTunes.  Which means that (setting bandwidth issues aside), when traveling, I can just bring my AppleTV and plug it into a hotel TV and have my entire (to the extent iTunes purchased) video library available.  I currently use the iPad as a video library but even with 64g, the library is limited.  Too bad hotel bandwidth makes this more hypothetical than useful for now.